When There's Blood In The Streets, Buy

There's not just blood, there's 30,000 corpses forming a highway that runs from Seattle down to San Diego, through Austin over to Europe. Also, we're back?

Hey, it’s been a while. Sorry about that. We got busy. Joe fled the country (no warrant can hold him) and Chris had a second child (bloodline secured). But we’re back and we’re postin’. You can catch us on LinkedIn as well, but we’ll drop longer, director’s cut versions of our stuff here. Please share with a buddy if you’re so inclined. Now, onto le content. -Ed.

For a while, it felt like everyone (except me, not bitter) with Riot or Blizzard on their resume was getting a check to make a videogame. Since then, most games that have really taken off weren't developed by new studios with VC backing, and as a result we've seen major pullback from traditional investors. Publishers have also followed suit.

The ones that are left are asking for vertical slices of a game to prove a concept, or traction within the market to show early market validation, which begs the question of: If I have those things, why do I need you? They're acting more like banks than early-stage investors.

I think they're making a huge mistake.

The old adage of "when there's blood in the streets, buy" couldn't be more approprate right now. There's not just blood, there's 30,000 corpses forming a highway that runs from Seattle down to San Diego, through Austin over to Europe. There are principal engineers, lead designers, studio heads, entire teams of people out there who have credible pitches and need a lot less than seven figures to get an idea to the prove-it stage.

Instead of pulling back, why not lean in harder? Instead of one big check, write 10-20 small ones to small teams (you can still be picky about who's on them), demand they put something in front of actual players at the end, and decide if they're worth more money after that.

I think this is a safer play than hoping you get a 100x-er from a few huge bets. Here's why.

The hard truth about core videogames is this: good games sell, good marketing helps them sell more, but nobody knows where the next The Witcher or Slay the Spire is coming from. Nobody. You find out what your chances are by putting stuff in front of people, getting their feedback, and ultimately discovering what works - both in what you make and how you sell it.

So get small with this stuff. Go lock in all that talent that's in the wind right now, do stuff like a16z's speedrun but focused specifically on game studios. There's blood in the streets. Buy!

There are a lot of reasons money's harder to come by. Turns out making League of Legends or Roblox is Hard(tm). Picking winners years ahead of a release in a market this saturated can be summed up with: "lol." The financial truisms of software companies don't translate well to a creative field like core games. And the near-0% interest rates that encouraged high-risk investment is gone.

But that doesn't mean there isn't opportunity out there. It just takes a different strategy. I dunno, maybe make it a venture or something.