Tomorrow’s Surprise Hits: Paralives
Digging into some games that will "come out of nowhere" next.
Every month or two, a game “comes out of nowhere” and goes viral, achieving some mind-blowing concurrency count — Helldivers II, Palworld, Lethal Company, the list goes on.
I think those of us who work closer to the AAA and venture-backed side of the industry — founders, executives, marketers and press — have a massive blind spot. The truth is, almost without exception, none of these games truly “came out of nowhere.”
More often than not, these games have been marketed for years, building community, validating gameplay through playtesting and a healthy feedback loop with real players, refining marketing strategy by actually marketing the videogame and seeing what works, and ultimately proving product/market fit. Through the process, these games build up a critical mass of hyper-fans sufficient to start a chain reaction at launch. This is the new playbook.
I spend a lot of time crawling steamdb and talking to developers, and there are so many examples of games that are doing the same thing right now, just under the mainstream radar. And when they launch, at least some of them are going to become tomorrow’s surprise left-field hit, and a bunch of people will go, “wow, that’s weird! Guess they just got lucky!”
I think it’s worth studying games that fit this profile earlier in their life cycle, because 1) I very much plan to take credit for my prescience when one of these hits, and 2) they’re probably trying new shit to grow an audience that’s working and hasn’t yet become saturated.
You probably haven’t heard of Paralives.
It’s a life sim game started originally by a solo dev, Alex Massé. In 2019, Massé quit his mobile game development job and began work on the project — and announced it basically immediately. He launched a website, Patreon page and social channels and began sharing regular, consistent updates on the game’s vision and progress.
"I was really inspired by what the Ooblets team did, which is the marketing first approach," Massé explained. "As soon as they had their first screenshot of the game, they posted it on social media. So they were able to know there was interest for the game really quickly and use it to build a community during development." He liked the idea of involving a community, so Patreon appealed more than working with a publisher.
The Sims is, of course, one of the most successful game franchises in history, with well over $5 billion in lifetime revenue (as of 2019 reporting). Because there is a large segment of The Sims audience that feels unheard, underserved and exploited by EA’s offerings, there was a large and hungry golden cohort of lifesim fans who were easy to convert to supporters. Massé focused development (and marketing) initially on low-hanging-fruit differentiators — common player pain points like the inability to create curved walls or split level homes.
By March 2020 (when Patreon data becomes available), the project was already earning $6k/month. In May 2020, they conducted a large press, creator and social media campaign, and quickly boosted the Patreon revenue to nearly $40k/month (🫢), where it’s held steady for almost 4 years. Put a pin in that, because subscription crowdfunding for games is a strategy I am dying to dig into. Anyone have any other good examples of this approach at a meaningful scale?
The game’s ongoing marketing approach includes a steady stream of content, including 4-5 short- and long-form videos per month (showcasing game features, funny bugs, and tying into holidays and trends). The game’s large Patreon and Discord communities receive early previews and additional behind-the-scenes access.
The game’s growth has been steady, with well over a million wishlists - Paralives is currently the 43rd most-wishlisted game on Steam. I’ll see you when they launch into Early Access next year and everyone goes “HUH???”