Some 2024 Games Industry Predictions

Let's peer into the crystal ball and find the hottest takes and the spiciest clickbait guesses as to what's in store.

It’s still the first week of January, so I think I’m well within my rights to do the hack thing and post a bunch of industry predictions for 2024 — so here they are, with a bias towards the core PC/console & live service world:

1. The layoffs will continue until morale improves. Unfortunately, I don’t believe we’ve hit the nadir in the games industry’s current (over)correction. There’s a defensive, cowardly, uncreative type of momentum at play from executives and boards that exceeds any rational justification for cuts, and I think it’ll take some time before they find they wise up. I hope I’m wrong about this one.

2. Not a single AAA publisher will launch a successful new IP. 2023 was littered with false starts from much-hyped new IPs — Forspoken, Redfall, Immortals Of Aveum, arguably Starfield, the list goes on. I suspect 2024 will bring more of these big-budget games that fizzle at launch.

3. The biggest hits will be from indie teams without big publisher backing, continuing the trend of games like Among Us, Only Up, Battlebit, and Lethal Company. The flood of talent ejected from large studios will surely spawn ambitious, risk-taking studios capable of quickly launching great multiplayer games. At least one of these hits will be venture backed, but with a <$5M check.

4. At least one of these breakout indies will be a UEFN island. Even if this happens, I don’t know if it’ll be common knowledge, as the UGC ecosystems are kind of black boxes — but I bet we’ll see a UEFN island that achieves & sustains CCU that’d be competitive with top Steam games.

5. The web3 gaming renaissance will fail to manifest, as studios working in this space will struggle to produce games compelling enough in their own rights to overcome the headwinds of entrenched crypto skepticism. If one does break out, it'll be because the crypto tech is invisible and just works.

6. An influencer-led game will do numbers — probably from a publisher like Dunkey’s BIGMODE or OTK’s Mad Mushroom, and not from a studio started by a creator.

7. Gaming AI startup investment will continue apace, but the lofty promises about unlocking new types of game experiences won’t manifest. It’ll still be used as an excuse to lay off lots of creatives, but the actual outputs provided by currently available generative AI tech won’t make a dent in the lost productivity of all of that discarded talent.

8. Fewer games will launch free-to-play, with studios learning the lesson that it’s just about impossible to de-risk the outcome of having a game with the retention and growth potential necessary to justify the business model.

9. Crowdfunding will make a (modest) comeback, with more digital games receiving funding from Kickstarter, Patreon, or other platforms than in recent years.

10. Embracer’s death spiral will continue, with at least three more studio closures. Some new, damning detail about the Savvy deal’s collapse will emerge, pissing everyone off.