Checking in on Creator-Led Publishing: All-In or Side Bet?

Can creators pick winners? Can they *make* winners?

Content creators are one of the only reliable ways to build awareness for games in today’s crowded market, but it’s become an increasingly commodified space — creators know the value they bring (and they charge for it), and there’s a cottage industry of platforms and marketplaces looking to get a piece of the action.

I’ve been keeping a close eye on the nascent ecosystem of creator-led development and publishing efforts. I’m cautiously bullish, but the viability of this model remains an open question:

Can creators pick winners?
Can creators make winners?

Sodapoppin is often credited as the first big streamer to pick up Among Us, propelling it from unknown dead game to worldwide sensation. His publishing label, Mad Mushroom, who he owns with the rest of the OTK lineup of creators, just announced Rumble Club, a brawler that evokes Fall/Stumble Guys  (“don’t fall, don’t stumble — rumble!” <- now that’s the good shit), releasing in just a month.

At first blush, 133k hours watched on Twitch converting to ~2k wishlists and 336 peak concurrent users on their playtest seems…low. I want to be clear that this is not a critique — it’s entirely possible that this is a super-soft launch intended only to drive a very low target threshold of players for playtesting, and the bulk of the game’s marketing support is being held for a future push. And even if this result is disappointing, it’s just really, really hard to grow an audience out there right now.

Assuming this result is lower than they were hoping, is it because the game simply didn’t have the juice they thought it did when they signed it? Or is it because they aren’t fully committed to its success?

Are creators — like Sodapoppin and the rest of the OTK lineup — truly invested in driving success for their portfolio titles? Or is it simply a hedge, trading the opportunity cost of typical sponsored stream revenue for the upside potential of a game you’re casually betting on.

I think if it’s the former, the model has a good chance of being reliable and successful. But if it’s the latter, it will have the same hitrate of your run-of-the-mill sponsored creator campaign: that is, really, really bad.